The 3x4 Method: A Case Study of Merit Aid
Here are two examples of students from a recent cohort who used the 3x4 method to build their application and matching lists. Both of these students reside in Illinois and were clients in the summer of 2024. The merit aid data referenced below is accurate as of March 2025. There’s an analysis of each students’ overall strategy below as well. Note the 3x4 method is effective for both applications and merit awards.
The maps and tables show only 3 regions (not 4), but both of these students considered 4 regions for their final application set. Both students eliminated the Northwest for reasons of distance, and they, therefore, applied to schools in only 3 regions.
Two Final Application Lists
Ella, first and foremost, wanted to stay closer to her Illinois home, and she considered more schools in the Midwest than any other region. (This is, of course, not uncommon.) Ella also went into the application process with a non-negotiable major. (She wants to major in Global Health.) The rigid focus on a single major helped her to manage her options at the outset. Here are Ella’s final choices for applications:
MIDWEST
Augustana
Bradley University
Loyola (Chicago)
Marquette
Univer. of Illinois/Champaign-Urbana
University of Iowa
University of Michigan
University of Wisconsin/Madison
SOUTHEAST
Georgetown
Howard University
University of Tampa
NORTHEAST
Columbia
Rutgers
University of Pittsburgh
An important caveat here: Ella did have 3 additional schools on her last draft list — Georgetown, U. of Pittsburgh, and Columbia U. She was unwilling to apply to Columbia early decision, and felt that Georgetown was too much of a reach. She pulled the U. of Pittsburgh at the last minute because she had misunderstood the nature of their Global Health program (which was misaligned with her needs).
Brianna
Brianna insisted she wanted to look first at schools in the Southeast — for the better weather from chilly Illinois and the lower cost-of-living. She also wanted to compare these schools to schools in the Southwest (also for reasons of the more temperate weather). Finally, Brianna was convinced by her parents to give schools in the Midwest an “honest look” too. Here are Brianna’s final choices for applications:
MIDWEST
Indiana University
Miami University (OH)
University of Dayton
University of Illinois/Champaign-Urbana
SOUTHEAST
Clemson University
College of Charleston
Furman University
N.C. State University
Tulane University
University of North Carolina/Chapel Hill
University of Tampa
University of Tennessee
SOUTHWEST
Baylor University
Texas Christian University
University of Arizona
Ella
An Analysis of Merit Aid Received
As to the two other non-Midwest schools — Howard is a nationally recognized HBCU and arguably also the most prestigious. As a mixed-race student, a Howard application was extremely important to Ella. The U. of Tampa is very popular among her peer-group, and it’s no surprise (nor is it necessarily “wrong”) that this influenced her choice. For 2023 - 2024, the U of Tampa’s acceptance rate was 41%, but the rate for Ella’s high school was double that or over 80%. Students from Ella’s high school have an advantage for that specific school.
However, Ella’s strategy really pays off when we look at the Midwestern applications. Notice what an amazing value Bradley presents, and with a generous offer of $30,000 they seem to really want her as a student. The same can be said for Augustana who, as a small liberal arts college, is trying to pull an excellent student like Ella away from UIUC with an offer of $34,000. Interesting also, is the competition for her enrollment at Loyola (Chicago) and nearby Marquette in Milwaukee. These two schools, with very similar characteristics, are within $2,090 of each other!
Finally, look closely at the two very different messages from Iowa and U. of Wisc./Madison. Iowa has awarded Ella a very generous $9,500 but UW nil — not unclear who wants her! (And this is typical of UW and Illinois students, as IL and WI refuse to establish a reciprocal tuition agreement like the one between WI & MN.)
Ella
First let’s take a look at Ella’s non-Midwest choices. As mentioned above, she decided against Columbia, Georgetown, and the University of Pittsburgh (although she might consider the U. of Pitt. for graduate school in four years). She honed in on Rutgers because, according to her research, Rutgers has an exceptional program in Global Health. Rutgers is an excellent choice for it’s comparative value to UIUC. Rutgers is #41 for national universities, according to U.S. News & World Report, while UIUC is #33. Both schools are large, research institutions with varied programs and comprehensive facilities and many learning opportunities. When comparing cost, we see, with merit aid from Rutgers, Ella could attend for only $6,060 more per year than UIUC. Interestingly enough, if you subtract her honors scholarship to UIUC, the cost is almost identical. Rutgers is making her an offer adjusted by the base in-state cost of UIUC.
Some Takeaways:
The 3x4 strategy works for both applying and seeking merit aid.
It’s OK to drop to 3 regions but don’t drop to 3 sizes.
Always apply at your “public flagship” for reasons of choice and price comparison.
Notice how sticker price really doesn’t matter!
Seek out the most popular, best schools your peers apply to; talk to your school’s college counselor for a list based on recent, local data.
These examples are specific to the choices of 2 students from Illinois/Midwest, but this exact same pattern can be seen across regions, especially when students cross-apply from a higher COL area to a lower COL area. (Familiar examples are IL - Southeast, NJ - Southeast, WA - Southwest.)
Brianna
First, as with Ella, let’s look at one of the regions outside Brianna’s first choice — the Midwest. As mentioned above, Brianna’s parents strongly suggested she take an honest look at school’s closer to her home in Illinois.
Her go-to, like other very fortunate students from her high school, is UIUC, and she was able to be admitted. If you consider IU as a competitor for students with UIUC (like Iowa, Wisc./Madison, U of MN) then you understand the context of the $6,000 award from IU. Unfortunately, the COA between these two schools is far apart. Again, as with Brianna’s high school’s success for admission to UIUC, her school’s students also do well for admission to Miami University (OH) and the University of Dayton, and those two merit amounts for Brianna track. (Note especially the generosity of U. of Dayton.)
Turning to the Southwest, Brianna’s choices are mostly in Texas for reasons of lowered travel cost and peer-influence. TCU is a quasi-popular choice, but Baylor less so. Brianna was waitlisted at TCU but accepted to Baylor with a merit award. (Granted this is a small sample of only 2 schools, but consider that TCU has an acceptance rate of 47% which is higher than Baylor’s of 42%. There’s really no way to know how she got in one and not the other. Perhaps, her family’s ability to pay the relatively high cost of Baylor even after the merit award.) Finally, Arizona is a wonderful go-to choice for students from the Midwest. Arizona has a 85% acceptance rate and features more Nobel Laureate professors than any school other than Harvard. Arizona also has robust online offerings, updated facilities, and an impressive research footprint. Also, and here’s the kicker, Arizona is utterly transparent about merit aid for its students, and Brianna, who had a 3.84 GPA, qualified for $20,000 as an out-of-state student.
Finally, in the Southeast, we see that Brianna’s strategy, just like Ella’s, paid off with an array of merit offers. It’s remarkable (and not so) that Furman and the College of Charleston have the exact same cost — both of these small schools seek a national range of students. Brianna, as a student from Illinois, is an appealing candidate, therefore, to these two institutions in South Carolina. The deferral, wait-listings, and rejection track with the acceptance rate of these universities and the fact that Brianna’s from a high COL area (Illinois) applying to a lower COL area (Southwest) — which is an extremely popular strategy, which increases overall application numbers. The high-COL to low-COL cross-over especially explains the U. of Tenn. rejection, as Tenn. has become suddenly very popular for Illinois applicants. Again, note that Brianna, like Ella, was admitted to the U. of Tampa, and she also received a merit award.